5/10/2023

May 10, 2023


After a largely negative day on Tuesday, corn rebounded with the July contract trading up to 12 cents higher and ending the day up 9.  Yesterday's downward spiral was fueled by another China cancellation and some very good planting pace numbers from the USDA.  This cancellation was for 272,000 tonnes, or about 10.7 million bushels, but corn found footing today as it was rumored China was putting back on some of these cancelled sales.  It appears the bulk of the corn crop will be planted and in the rearview mirror by the end of the week with some already switching to soybeans.  Weekly ethanol data showed a fall in production of 11,000 barrels/day to 965,000 bpd.  Stocks dropped 72,000 barrels to 23.29 million bbls.  Corn use for ethanol is at an estimated total 3.467 billion bushels, down 173 million bushels from this time last year.  The ethanol grind is also behind the pace needed to meet the USDA demand number by 32 million bushels.
 

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.