Grain > Commentary > 5-10-2023

5/10/2023

May 10, 2023

After a largely negative day on Tuesday, corn rebounded with the July contract trading up to 12 cents higher and ending the day up 9.  Yesterday's downward spiral was fueled by another China cancellation and some very good planting pace numbers from the USDA.  This cancellation was for 272,000 tonnes, or about 10.7 million bushels, but corn found footing today as it was rumored China was putting back on some of these cancelled sales.  It appears the bulk of the corn crop will be planted and in the rearview mirror by the end of the week with some already switching to soybeans.  Weekly ethanol data showed a fall in production of 11,000 barrels/day to 965,000 bpd.  Stocks dropped 72,000 barrels to 23.29 million bbls.  Corn use for ethanol is at an estimated total 3.467 billion bushels, down 173 million bushels from this time last year.  The ethanol grind is also behind the pace needed to meet the USDA demand number by 32 million bushels.
 

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.