5/1/2024

May 01, 2024


A really nice outside reversal higher in corn and a decent bounce back in soybeans on Wednesday. Soybeans closed just under today's highs with gains ranging between 4 to 7 cents. Today's biggest headline was an announcement that agricultural products will be allowed in consideration with the Sustainable Aviation Fuel subsidy program. This could be huge for ethanol but there appears to be some interesting restrictions for corn in program. These restrictions include employing a combination of no-till and cover crop practices and speciality fertilizer applications. Regardless, it's a starting point and opens a much-needed door for ethanol into this program. Four months into 2024 and the Federal Reserve have left rates unchanged. Rates cuts were expected after we turned the calendar to 2024 but some less than ideal economic data means we may not see a rate cut this year, at all. A nice jump in ethanol production last week with a 33,000 barrel/day increase to 987,000 bpd. Stocks were off slightly, down 200k barrels to 25.5 million barrels total.

Corn putting together a really healthy trend higher. With today’s close, we’re looking at being within 10-14 cents of a nice cash sales target. The window between our March high of 460’0 and the 100-day moving average at 460’5 up to the 38% retracement just over 464’0 is a solid target for basis-fixed or corn out of the bin at home.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.