5/1/2024

May 01, 2024


A really nice outside reversal higher in corn and a decent bounce back in soybeans on Wednesday. Soybeans closed just under today's highs with gains ranging between 4 to 7 cents. Today's biggest headline was an announcement that agricultural products will be allowed in consideration with the Sustainable Aviation Fuel subsidy program. This could be huge for ethanol but there appears to be some interesting restrictions for corn in program. These restrictions include employing a combination of no-till and cover crop practices and speciality fertilizer applications. Regardless, it's a starting point and opens a much-needed door for ethanol into this program. Four months into 2024 and the Federal Reserve have left rates unchanged. Rates cuts were expected after we turned the calendar to 2024 but some less than ideal economic data means we may not see a rate cut this year, at all. A nice jump in ethanol production last week with a 33,000 barrel/day increase to 987,000 bpd. Stocks were off slightly, down 200k barrels to 25.5 million barrels total.

Corn putting together a really healthy trend higher. With today’s close, we’re looking at being within 10-14 cents of a nice cash sales target. The window between our March high of 460’0 and the 100-day moving average at 460’5 up to the 38% retracement just over 464’0 is a solid target for basis-fixed or corn out of the bin at home.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.