5/1/2024

May 01, 2024


A really nice outside reversal higher in corn and a decent bounce back in soybeans on Wednesday. Soybeans closed just under today's highs with gains ranging between 4 to 7 cents. Today's biggest headline was an announcement that agricultural products will be allowed in consideration with the Sustainable Aviation Fuel subsidy program. This could be huge for ethanol but there appears to be some interesting restrictions for corn in program. These restrictions include employing a combination of no-till and cover crop practices and speciality fertilizer applications. Regardless, it's a starting point and opens a much-needed door for ethanol into this program. Four months into 2024 and the Federal Reserve have left rates unchanged. Rates cuts were expected after we turned the calendar to 2024 but some less than ideal economic data means we may not see a rate cut this year, at all. A nice jump in ethanol production last week with a 33,000 barrel/day increase to 987,000 bpd. Stocks were off slightly, down 200k barrels to 25.5 million barrels total.

Corn putting together a really healthy trend higher. With today’s close, we’re looking at being within 10-14 cents of a nice cash sales target. The window between our March high of 460’0 and the 100-day moving average at 460’5 up to the 38% retracement just over 464’0 is a solid target for basis-fixed or corn out of the bin at home.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.