Grain > Commentary > 5-1-2023

5/1/2023

May 01, 2023

Monday was a lack-luster day for the corn trade.  After drifting either side of unchanged overnight, corn was stuck in steady 1-2 lower trade through most of the session.  Not surprising considering we are entering the heart of planting season and weather forecasts look very ideal for putting crop in the ground.  Barring a surprise, any rallies will likely be short lived over the next couple weeks.  Going against the grain today was soybean trade which ended the day 8-15 cents higher in steady fashion.  The bounce in beans is partially corrective after a sharp fall-off on the board last week and seasonal trends are mostly at play.  Weekly export inspections for corn came in above expectations at 1.518 mln tonnes, a marketing year high but average for this week compared to past years.  Soybean inspections were mid-range at 400k tonnes.  Shipment pace for corn is now 165 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from the 183-million-bushel deficit last week.  Soybean export pace continues to hold steady ahead of the USDA pace.  We are currently 64 million bushels ahead of the USDA target, up 2 million bushels from last week.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.