5/1/2023

May 01, 2023


Monday was a lack-luster day for the corn trade.  After drifting either side of unchanged overnight, corn was stuck in steady 1-2 lower trade through most of the session.  Not surprising considering we are entering the heart of planting season and weather forecasts look very ideal for putting crop in the ground.  Barring a surprise, any rallies will likely be short lived over the next couple weeks.  Going against the grain today was soybean trade which ended the day 8-15 cents higher in steady fashion.  The bounce in beans is partially corrective after a sharp fall-off on the board last week and seasonal trends are mostly at play.  Weekly export inspections for corn came in above expectations at 1.518 mln tonnes, a marketing year high but average for this week compared to past years.  Soybean inspections were mid-range at 400k tonnes.  Shipment pace for corn is now 165 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from the 183-million-bushel deficit last week.  Soybean export pace continues to hold steady ahead of the USDA pace.  We are currently 64 million bushels ahead of the USDA target, up 2 million bushels from last week.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.