Grain > Commentary > 5-1-2023

5/1/2023

May 01, 2023

Monday was a lack-luster day for the corn trade.  After drifting either side of unchanged overnight, corn was stuck in steady 1-2 lower trade through most of the session.  Not surprising considering we are entering the heart of planting season and weather forecasts look very ideal for putting crop in the ground.  Barring a surprise, any rallies will likely be short lived over the next couple weeks.  Going against the grain today was soybean trade which ended the day 8-15 cents higher in steady fashion.  The bounce in beans is partially corrective after a sharp fall-off on the board last week and seasonal trends are mostly at play.  Weekly export inspections for corn came in above expectations at 1.518 mln tonnes, a marketing year high but average for this week compared to past years.  Soybean inspections were mid-range at 400k tonnes.  Shipment pace for corn is now 165 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from the 183-million-bushel deficit last week.  Soybean export pace continues to hold steady ahead of the USDA pace.  We are currently 64 million bushels ahead of the USDA target, up 2 million bushels from last week.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.