Grain > Commentary > 4-9-2021

4/9/2021

Apr 09, 2021

4/9/2021
Corn got exactly what it was looking for today on the report, but had a hard time reacting bullish because we were up big yesterday and made new highs this morning before the report.  Corn carryout came in at 1.352 billion, which was below the 1.4 billion estimates.  Exports were up 75 million, which was expected even though some traders thought it should have been more.  Feed up 50 million and ethanol up 25 million.  The 1.352 billion puts the stocks to use ratio at 9.15%.  As I mentioned corn did trade 15 cents higher on the front end off the report, but it was merely in the blink of an eye.  Long term corn should remain well supported.  World corn stocks were about as expected at 283.85 million tonnes vs a guess of 284.82. Beans were rather uneventful on the report.  Carryout was left unchanged at 120 million bushel.  They cut the crush number by 10 million bushel, but raised exports by 30 million bushels.  The trade got exactly what it expected on beans and we reacted slightly lower with the futures today.  Beans should also remain well supported.  World bean stocks were slightly bearish at 86.87 million tonnes vs a guess of 83.52.
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.