4/8/2024

Apr 08, 2024


It took until the close at 1:20 but the paint was finally dry on today's session. There were some short spurts of volatility but corn and soybeans were mostly locked inside of 3-4 cent ranges throughout the day. Corn finished unchanged to 1 higher and soybeans ended Monday down 1-3 cents. Unless we get a major headline ahead of Thursday's report, expect more of the same leading up to 11:00am on Thursday. Trade is looking for the USDA to make another round of cuts to South American production. Weekly export inspections were strong for corn and beat the trade expectations with 1.42 mln tonnes shipped last week. Soybean shipments were okay with 484k tonnes shipped. The USDA also revised the previous week's report and increased inspection volumes for corn and soybeans.

Some nice general moisture over the weekend will moistly put to rest the "early planting" story the bears had been pitching for a while. Looks like the market will have a normal planting window to price in.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.