Grain > Commentary > 4-8-2021

4/8/2021

Apr 08, 2021

4/8/2021
A good day on the board of trade for both corn and soybeans.  Some rumblings of possible export business but other than that, not much for new news.  Today's strongly higher trade in corn caught many by surprise, with most expecting a move of this type tomorrow.  It appears the funds spent today positioning themselves ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report where it is expected that the USDA will cut the corn and soybean carryout numbers.  Possible drought stress issues in Brazil's second crop corn also had speculators putting their money down on the long side of the market.  The weekly export sales report was mixed with both old and new crop corn reported within their expected ranges.  Old crop beans showed net-cancellations in contrast to new crop beans, where numbers came in above trade estimates.  It is tough to pin-point a certain reason why corn was so strong today besides just a combination of everything bullish coming forward, similar to our down days where everything bearish gets spotlighted at one time.  Tomorrow will be nothing short of exciting in the markets.  Nice soaker-type rain showers over the past couple days in our area with more forecasted.  Looks like we will have ample moisture to get this year's crop started.

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8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.