4/7/2022

Apr 07, 2022


4/7/2022
Nothing noteworthy has changed in our fundamentals over the past 24 hours but corn and soybeans were the beneficiary of a large money flow back in.  Weekly export sales were extremely vanilla and dead center of the trading estimate ranges with 782k tonnes of corn and 800k tonnes of soybeans sold.  CONAB released their April production estimates for Brazil corn and soy with an increase in corn (115.6 mmt, +3.3 mmt from Mar) and a slight cut in soy (122.4 mmt, -0.4 mmt from Mar).  Tomorrow, we get our April WASDE report from the USDA and it's expected to be a quiet one with small cuts in U.S. ending stocks and changes in Brazil production similar to those from CONAB.  Next month, the USDA will release its first supply and demand numbers for the 2022 crop and that will likely get more attention than tomorrow's report.  In a show of incredible market strength, new crop soybeans are now trading back near levels seen prior to last week's planting intentions report.  That report was extremely bearish for soy and now the effect it had on the market can be read as neutral.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be close next Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.  The grain markets will also be closed that day.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.