4/7/2022

Apr 07, 2022


4/7/2022
Nothing noteworthy has changed in our fundamentals over the past 24 hours but corn and soybeans were the beneficiary of a large money flow back in.  Weekly export sales were extremely vanilla and dead center of the trading estimate ranges with 782k tonnes of corn and 800k tonnes of soybeans sold.  CONAB released their April production estimates for Brazil corn and soy with an increase in corn (115.6 mmt, +3.3 mmt from Mar) and a slight cut in soy (122.4 mmt, -0.4 mmt from Mar).  Tomorrow, we get our April WASDE report from the USDA and it's expected to be a quiet one with small cuts in U.S. ending stocks and changes in Brazil production similar to those from CONAB.  Next month, the USDA will release its first supply and demand numbers for the 2022 crop and that will likely get more attention than tomorrow's report.  In a show of incredible market strength, new crop soybeans are now trading back near levels seen prior to last week's planting intentions report.  That report was extremely bearish for soy and now the effect it had on the market can be read as neutral.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be close next Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.  The grain markets will also be closed that day.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.