4/7/2022

Apr 07, 2022


4/7/2022
Nothing noteworthy has changed in our fundamentals over the past 24 hours but corn and soybeans were the beneficiary of a large money flow back in.  Weekly export sales were extremely vanilla and dead center of the trading estimate ranges with 782k tonnes of corn and 800k tonnes of soybeans sold.  CONAB released their April production estimates for Brazil corn and soy with an increase in corn (115.6 mmt, +3.3 mmt from Mar) and a slight cut in soy (122.4 mmt, -0.4 mmt from Mar).  Tomorrow, we get our April WASDE report from the USDA and it's expected to be a quiet one with small cuts in U.S. ending stocks and changes in Brazil production similar to those from CONAB.  Next month, the USDA will release its first supply and demand numbers for the 2022 crop and that will likely get more attention than tomorrow's report.  In a show of incredible market strength, new crop soybeans are now trading back near levels seen prior to last week's planting intentions report.  That report was extremely bearish for soy and now the effect it had on the market can be read as neutral.  Reminder: Glacial Plains will be close next Friday, April 15 in observance of Good Friday.  The grain markets will also be closed that day.
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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.