Grain > Commentary > 4-7-2021

4/7/2021

Apr 07, 2021

4/7/2021
Corn was stronger as the calendar spreads signal a continuance of good domestic demand.  The weekly ethanol report showed a slight increase in production of 10,000 bbl/day along with inventory decreasing by 500k barrels.  After a couple days of firmly higher trade, soybeans and soybean oil took a breather today after the monthly exports report showed that soybean export pace had fallen back to the yearly averages.  With good export demand in corn and soybeans, along with crush demand in beans, the consensus in the market is that we are expecting to see a friendly report on Friday.  New reports of confirmed outbreaks of African Swine Fever in China have become more consistent lately, with the newest headline being a dead pig washed ashore in Taiwan testing positive for ASF.  China has a history of downplaying crisis inside its borders and it would be interesting to know how the pig ended up in the sea.  I'm sure there are no shortage of theories on that.  Big picture: everyone is leaning extremely bullish but commodity markets are not immune to events on the geo-political landscape.  Make sure you have a strategy in place to protect yourself.
 

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5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.