4/7/2021

Apr 07, 2021


4/7/2021
Corn was stronger as the calendar spreads signal a continuance of good domestic demand.  The weekly ethanol report showed a slight increase in production of 10,000 bbl/day along with inventory decreasing by 500k barrels.  After a couple days of firmly higher trade, soybeans and soybean oil took a breather today after the monthly exports report showed that soybean export pace had fallen back to the yearly averages.  With good export demand in corn and soybeans, along with crush demand in beans, the consensus in the market is that we are expecting to see a friendly report on Friday.  New reports of confirmed outbreaks of African Swine Fever in China have become more consistent lately, with the newest headline being a dead pig washed ashore in Taiwan testing positive for ASF.  China has a history of downplaying crisis inside its borders and it would be interesting to know how the pig ended up in the sea.  I'm sure there are no shortage of theories on that.  Big picture: everyone is leaning extremely bullish but commodity markets are not immune to events on the geo-political landscape.  Make sure you have a strategy in place to protect yourself.
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.