Grain > Commentary > 4-6-2021

4/6/2021

Apr 06, 2021

4/6/2021
A bit of a replay from yesterday with corn mixed and beans higher in quiet fashion for the second consecutive day. Yesterday, the USDA released their first weekly crop progress report for the 2021 year and the early season reports typically don't give trade a whole lot to work with. Corn planting in the US was seen at 2% complete, matching the yearly average for this time. Spring Wheat is estimated at 3% complete, slightly ahead of the 2% yearly average. The Winter Wheat condition was the number trade was most looking forward to after the cold snap in mid-February sent wheat futures surging on speculation the wheat crop suffered significant damage. Winter wheat was seen at 53% good-to-excellent, a 7% increase from November's rating, and 4% headed, slightly ahead of the 3% yearly average. We are starting to see market analyst estimates for Friday's WASDE report, with most expecting to see a 100 million bushel or larger cut in the corn carryout number which currently sits at 1.5 billion bushels. Analysts also expect a 2-5 million bushel decrease in the soybean carryout number. If looking to price grain this week, implement sell orders as an attempt capture part of the possible high price spikes we see before and after report releases.

Read More News

1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.