4/6/2021

Apr 06, 2021


4/6/2021
A bit of a replay from yesterday with corn mixed and beans higher in quiet fashion for the second consecutive day. Yesterday, the USDA released their first weekly crop progress report for the 2021 year and the early season reports typically don't give trade a whole lot to work with. Corn planting in the US was seen at 2% complete, matching the yearly average for this time. Spring Wheat is estimated at 3% complete, slightly ahead of the 2% yearly average. The Winter Wheat condition was the number trade was most looking forward to after the cold snap in mid-February sent wheat futures surging on speculation the wheat crop suffered significant damage. Winter wheat was seen at 53% good-to-excellent, a 7% increase from November's rating, and 4% headed, slightly ahead of the 3% yearly average. We are starting to see market analyst estimates for Friday's WASDE report, with most expecting to see a 100 million bushel or larger cut in the corn carryout number which currently sits at 1.5 billion bushels. Analysts also expect a 2-5 million bushel decrease in the soybean carryout number. If looking to price grain this week, implement sell orders as an attempt capture part of the possible high price spikes we see before and after report releases.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.