4/5/2023
Apr 05, 2023
First of all, I would like to thank everyone that came out to the GPC Spring Update Meeting this morning. It was a nice turnout and the speakers did a great job.
Overnight markets were weaker, but export announcements this morning triggered the markets to bounce back into green figures before finishing slightly lower on the day. They announced 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 276,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown. Spread volatility is going crazy right now as this old crop inverse scenario plays out in both corn and beans. It is going to be a dangerous double-edged sward all the way to new crop. There is still 5 months before we get to new crop. Be smart about what you have left for old crop supplies. Inverses are dangerous and you don't want to be the last one with grain on the farm. Once the end users are covered the old crop vs new crop cash price comes together in a matter of hours. It happens every time and someone always gets hurt by it. We have time yet as this likely won't happen until August, but I personally would recommend moving your old crop supplies before the end of June. Or at least get the basis locked in by the end of June. The July to Sept corn inverse is going to be ugly as it is already 58 cents today and the July to Aug bean inverse is currently 53 cents.
Overnight markets were weaker, but export announcements this morning triggered the markets to bounce back into green figures before finishing slightly lower on the day. They announced 125,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 276,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown. Spread volatility is going crazy right now as this old crop inverse scenario plays out in both corn and beans. It is going to be a dangerous double-edged sward all the way to new crop. There is still 5 months before we get to new crop. Be smart about what you have left for old crop supplies. Inverses are dangerous and you don't want to be the last one with grain on the farm. Once the end users are covered the old crop vs new crop cash price comes together in a matter of hours. It happens every time and someone always gets hurt by it. We have time yet as this likely won't happen until August, but I personally would recommend moving your old crop supplies before the end of June. Or at least get the basis locked in by the end of June. The July to Sept corn inverse is going to be ugly as it is already 58 cents today and the July to Aug bean inverse is currently 53 cents.