4/4/2022

Apr 04, 2022


4/4/2022
Opening calls for Sunday night were higher with corn and soybeans trading in the green for almost the entirety of both sessions after news of Russia purposefully attacking the ports in Odesa, Ukraine.  Odesa is a major exporting hub and early reports indicated significant damage that "may take years to repair."  The USDA made a very large corn sale announcement at 8 a.m. this morning of 1,084,000 tonnes for delivery to China; 676k tonnes in 2021/22 and 408k tonnes in 2022/23.  This is the single largest corn purchase by China since May 2021.  Weekly export inspections were on the strong side for corn and average for soybeans with 1.528 million tonnes of corn inspected for shipment and 737k tonnes of soybeans inspected for shipment.  Corn export shipment pace is now 11 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast versus being short 34 million bushels the previous week.  This deficit started at more than 200 million bushels and has essentially disappeared.  Soybean export pace is now 58 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast versus 62 million bushels the previous week.  Seasonal temps have been slow to rise in the north central region and trade will begin monitoring planting pace closely.  Modern high-speed equipment makes this less of an issue but the saying is "buy the rumor, sell the fact" and it may provide a premium rich marketing opportunity in the near future.

The December corn contract traded $7.00 for the first time since 2012.
corn-chart.jpg

Read More News

Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.