4/30/2024

Apr 30, 2024


Tuesday saw grains in risk-off mode with wheat failing to make new highs for the first time in the past ten sessions. July soybeans have also failed to take out their 50-day moving average which sent them downwards to a 19 cent lower finish on the day. Corn losses were minimal considering the large negativity in the grain trading space, finishing 1-3 cents lower and bouncing back above the moving averages after testing the waters below during the session. Mother nature has really flipped the script in terms of soil moisture. Over the past week, a vast majority of the grain belt has received 1-4" of rainfall and bringing a much-needed recharge to the soil. Very ideal for any ground already planted but it's interesting how analysts who were bullish on dry/droughty are now already pushing a PP story, citing continued rains in the forecast. In our opinion, it is way too early to put any weight on a story like that. Best case scenario right now is that any PP helps keep us under 93 million corn acres.

7-day rainfall map

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.