4/30/2024

Apr 30, 2024


Tuesday saw grains in risk-off mode with wheat failing to make new highs for the first time in the past ten sessions. July soybeans have also failed to take out their 50-day moving average which sent them downwards to a 19 cent lower finish on the day. Corn losses were minimal considering the large negativity in the grain trading space, finishing 1-3 cents lower and bouncing back above the moving averages after testing the waters below during the session. Mother nature has really flipped the script in terms of soil moisture. Over the past week, a vast majority of the grain belt has received 1-4" of rainfall and bringing a much-needed recharge to the soil. Very ideal for any ground already planted but it's interesting how analysts who were bullish on dry/droughty are now already pushing a PP story, citing continued rains in the forecast. In our opinion, it is way too early to put any weight on a story like that. Best case scenario right now is that any PP helps keep us under 93 million corn acres.

7-day rainfall map

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.