4/30/2024

Apr 30, 2024


Tuesday saw grains in risk-off mode with wheat failing to make new highs for the first time in the past ten sessions. July soybeans have also failed to take out their 50-day moving average which sent them downwards to a 19 cent lower finish on the day. Corn losses were minimal considering the large negativity in the grain trading space, finishing 1-3 cents lower and bouncing back above the moving averages after testing the waters below during the session. Mother nature has really flipped the script in terms of soil moisture. Over the past week, a vast majority of the grain belt has received 1-4" of rainfall and bringing a much-needed recharge to the soil. Very ideal for any ground already planted but it's interesting how analysts who were bullish on dry/droughty are now already pushing a PP story, citing continued rains in the forecast. In our opinion, it is way too early to put any weight on a story like that. Best case scenario right now is that any PP helps keep us under 93 million corn acres.

7-day rainfall map

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.