4/30/2021

Apr 30, 2021


4/30/2021
Markets were quiet overnight with mixed trade in corn and beans lower in relatively narrow ranges.  That all changed at 8:30 this morning at session open, which saw corn go from unchanged to 10 higher almost immediately, and steadily climbed throughout the day to limit up, pulling soybeans with it, in impressive fashion.  While limit moves have become something of a norm lately, what we did today involved no fresh news.  New daily price limits go into effect Sunday night and it looks like trade will simply want to test them immediately.  7-day forecast for Brazil shows more heat and continued dryness and production estimates for the country are being updated to sub-100 mln metric tonnes of corn.  ASF continues to be a problem in China with rumors now swirling that they may cancel Brazil bean purchases, or roll them into the following crop year, as the need for soybean meal in China decreases with each new outbreak.  The good weather in front of us, a month-long rally that looks like it may continue into May, and 60+ foot planters traveling across fields at 10 mph or more means that we will have A LOT more corn acres planted this spring than what the USDA told us at the end of March.  Make sure you're comfortable with the amount of risk you have on the table if a dollar suddenly disappears from new crop corn.  Have a wonderful weekend!

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Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.  
Aug 30, 2024
Corn picks up 10 cents and soybeans improve just over 25 cents on the week to go into the holiday weekend on a positive note.  Soybean export sales have picked up the pace in a big way.  At the end of last week, sales...