Grain > Commentary > 4-3-2024

4/3/2024

Apr 03, 2024

A nice bounce back in the grains following Tuesday's lower markets. Corn and soybeans were able to recapture most of their losses from the prior session but trade has returned below the moving averages we were counting on as support levels. We failed to rally further on a mostly friendly planting intentions report and the bulls will be looking for the USDA to offer up some friendly numbers on the crop balance sheets in the WASDE next week. I would expect to see the USDA to raise corn usage for both exports and ethanol. The concern for the market going into April has been soil moisture following a mostly open winter but the past 10 days have brought us a nice boost just ahead of spring planting. With full planting and growing seasons ahead of us, current new crop levels have better support and our big risk is old crop pricing. It is important to be extremely diligent in pricing this year and, unless we get some type of risk factor that materializes, seasonal trends will provide the best clue as to what our market potential is.

A nice consolidation pattern forming in corn to fuel a breakout with our WASDE report next week. Fresh highs for this move definitely attainable on a friendly report.

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.