Grain > Commentary > 4-3-2024

4/3/2024

Apr 03, 2024

A nice bounce back in the grains following Tuesday's lower markets. Corn and soybeans were able to recapture most of their losses from the prior session but trade has returned below the moving averages we were counting on as support levels. We failed to rally further on a mostly friendly planting intentions report and the bulls will be looking for the USDA to offer up some friendly numbers on the crop balance sheets in the WASDE next week. I would expect to see the USDA to raise corn usage for both exports and ethanol. The concern for the market going into April has been soil moisture following a mostly open winter but the past 10 days have brought us a nice boost just ahead of spring planting. With full planting and growing seasons ahead of us, current new crop levels have better support and our big risk is old crop pricing. It is important to be extremely diligent in pricing this year and, unless we get some type of risk factor that materializes, seasonal trends will provide the best clue as to what our market potential is.

A nice consolidation pattern forming in corn to fuel a breakout with our WASDE report next week. Fresh highs for this move definitely attainable on a friendly report.

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