4/3/2023

Apr 03, 2023


What looked to be a hot start to the week cooled off for corn by mid-day. Commodities were expected to open higher following the announcement over the weekend from OPEC+ that crude production would be cut. A decision that is an assumed reaction to the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves not being supplemented at previously stated prices. The markets spent most of the overnight firmly in the green and corn traded out to 9 cents higher shortly after the 8:30 re-opening. Corn ended the day with the front contract down 2'6 cents and fractional to 1 cent higher finishes from July 23 and further out. Soybeans started out the session in strong fashion and held throughout the day, finishing 13-18 higher. Spreads off of the May contracts softened today. There were 2 export sale confirmations from the USDA this morning: 150,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico for 2023/24 and 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations in 2022/23. Weekly export inspections were near the top-end of estimates for corn at 1.097 mln tonnes inspected, soybean shipments were mid-range at 499k tonnes. Corn pace holds steady but should begin to close the gap on the USDA target during April.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.