4/28/2023

Apr 28, 2023


After seven days of hemorrhaging that resulted in the funds flipping short, a fresh 15 month low, and a total range of 75 cents traded, July corn appears to have finally stopped the bleeding. Corn reversed higher near the mid-day point of the session on Friday and traded steady 2-3 cents higher. Wheat was the first to lead the charge up the hill, followed by soybeans, then corn. The July soybean chart has a much friendlier look to it with today's reversal higher, trading outside of yesterday's range and finishing the day 15 cents higher in strong fashion. Overall, an excellent recovery today to end the week (and the month) and will provide a more optimistic perspective going into May. Other than some corrective technical trade, there was no fresh news or reports to move the market today. We are confident there will be chances to capture cash values of $6.25 corn and $14.25 soybeans in the near future.

Going into May slightly drier than we did in 2022. Will need to monitor this close, funds like to trade headlines and that gives us marketing opportunities throughout the growing season.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.