4/28/2022

Apr 28, 2022


4/28/2022
Corn was higher from the start overnight with fresh board length following a day filled with rumors of Chinese interest in more U.S. corn.  This morning, the USDA confirmed an export sale of 1,088,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to China, with 476,000 tonnes delivered in the 2021/22 marketing year and 612,000 tonnes delivered in the 2022/23 marketing year.  The soy oil market continues its hot streak that was kicked off by Indonesia banning palm oil exports.  The combination of strength in both soy oil and corn has been supportive for soybeans but they have struggled to advance back towards previous highs.  Soy meal values have fallen roughly 10% from their own highs over the past month (around $50/ton) and has acted as an anchor on soybeans.  Export sales were modest last week with corn coming in just under target at 867k tonnes sold and soybeans were mid-range with 481k tonnes sold.  Wheat sales were almost non-existent with 32k tonnes sold.  The total sales for soybeans now match the USDA target of 2.115 billion bushels with 4 months remaining in the marketing year and with China and others still buying but we still need to get everything shipped.  Unshipped sales will affect the balance sheet when we roll into the new crop year.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.