4/28/2022

Apr 28, 2022


4/28/2022
Corn was higher from the start overnight with fresh board length following a day filled with rumors of Chinese interest in more U.S. corn.  This morning, the USDA confirmed an export sale of 1,088,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to China, with 476,000 tonnes delivered in the 2021/22 marketing year and 612,000 tonnes delivered in the 2022/23 marketing year.  The soy oil market continues its hot streak that was kicked off by Indonesia banning palm oil exports.  The combination of strength in both soy oil and corn has been supportive for soybeans but they have struggled to advance back towards previous highs.  Soy meal values have fallen roughly 10% from their own highs over the past month (around $50/ton) and has acted as an anchor on soybeans.  Export sales were modest last week with corn coming in just under target at 867k tonnes sold and soybeans were mid-range with 481k tonnes sold.  Wheat sales were almost non-existent with 32k tonnes sold.  The total sales for soybeans now match the USDA target of 2.115 billion bushels with 4 months remaining in the marketing year and with China and others still buying but we still need to get everything shipped.  Unshipped sales will affect the balance sheet when we roll into the new crop year.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.