4/27/2022

Apr 27, 2022


4/27/2022
Corn and soybeans were lower overnight and immediately jumped higher at the 8:30 morning open. The rumor in Chicago was that China had made another significantly large purchase of U.S. corn. The corn planting pace in the U.S. remains minimal but pictures of planters rolling across fields are becoming an increasingly common sight on social media. The crop is going in regardless of conditions. Soy oil continues to set new all-time highs and drive soybeans back towards highs. The synthetic crush on the board has eclipsed the $2.00/bu mark. Weekly ethanol numbers showed output was up 16,000 barrels/day to 963k bpd and stocks were off 377,000 barrels to 23.97 million bbls. Production remains well below average and stocks remain well above average for this time of year. The USDA made no sale announcements this morning. Right now, it is very difficult to come up with a bearish scenario for grains which is when we need to be the most concerned about a bearish scenario.

New contract high on the July 22 corn.
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.