4/27/2022

Apr 27, 2022


4/27/2022
Corn and soybeans were lower overnight and immediately jumped higher at the 8:30 morning open. The rumor in Chicago was that China had made another significantly large purchase of U.S. corn. The corn planting pace in the U.S. remains minimal but pictures of planters rolling across fields are becoming an increasingly common sight on social media. The crop is going in regardless of conditions. Soy oil continues to set new all-time highs and drive soybeans back towards highs. The synthetic crush on the board has eclipsed the $2.00/bu mark. Weekly ethanol numbers showed output was up 16,000 barrels/day to 963k bpd and stocks were off 377,000 barrels to 23.97 million bbls. Production remains well below average and stocks remain well above average for this time of year. The USDA made no sale announcements this morning. Right now, it is very difficult to come up with a bearish scenario for grains which is when we need to be the most concerned about a bearish scenario.

New contract high on the July 22 corn.
corn-chart.jpg

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.