4/27/2022

Apr 27, 2022


4/27/2022
Corn and soybeans were lower overnight and immediately jumped higher at the 8:30 morning open. The rumor in Chicago was that China had made another significantly large purchase of U.S. corn. The corn planting pace in the U.S. remains minimal but pictures of planters rolling across fields are becoming an increasingly common sight on social media. The crop is going in regardless of conditions. Soy oil continues to set new all-time highs and drive soybeans back towards highs. The synthetic crush on the board has eclipsed the $2.00/bu mark. Weekly ethanol numbers showed output was up 16,000 barrels/day to 963k bpd and stocks were off 377,000 barrels to 23.97 million bbls. Production remains well below average and stocks remain well above average for this time of year. The USDA made no sale announcements this morning. Right now, it is very difficult to come up with a bearish scenario for grains which is when we need to be the most concerned about a bearish scenario.

New contract high on the July 22 corn.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.