4/26/2024

Apr 26, 2024


Wheat added to its recent rally while corn and soybeans were slightly pressured. A large precipitation system that’s expected to bring rainfall to about 75% of the corn and soybean growing areas materialized earlier today and rain is forecasted to continue off and on through Monday. On the opposite side of the coin, this same system is expected to miss about 50% of the wheat growing area. Corn stayed within a 4-cent range today while soybeans traded a relatively tight 8-11 cents. This week’s rally has been well-received by everyone and there’s been a fair amount of old and new crop pricing done this week but volatility has decreased from what we've become accustomed to over the past few years. Look to use corn sell orders spaced out in 12-15 cent ranges compared to the 25 cent ranges we've been using.  But for now, we will use 25 cent increments until this rally gives us a negative signal.  Also, soybeans sell orders may be better utilized in 25-30 cent increments rather than 50 cent increments.

We had another chance at $4.25 new crop corn today before fading lower to the finish. This is a price target we set a few weeks back after taking into consideration our October downtrend and 100-day moving average. Those could be some very stiff areas of resistance. Still recommend a sale at $4.25 and if the market can push through our nearest resistance areas, another target just under the gap on the chart at 503’0 for another round of new crop pricing. 

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.