4/26/2024

Apr 26, 2024


Wheat added to its recent rally while corn and soybeans were slightly pressured. A large precipitation system that’s expected to bring rainfall to about 75% of the corn and soybean growing areas materialized earlier today and rain is forecasted to continue off and on through Monday. On the opposite side of the coin, this same system is expected to miss about 50% of the wheat growing area. Corn stayed within a 4-cent range today while soybeans traded a relatively tight 8-11 cents. This week’s rally has been well-received by everyone and there’s been a fair amount of old and new crop pricing done this week but volatility has decreased from what we've become accustomed to over the past few years. Look to use corn sell orders spaced out in 12-15 cent ranges compared to the 25 cent ranges we've been using.  But for now, we will use 25 cent increments until this rally gives us a negative signal.  Also, soybeans sell orders may be better utilized in 25-30 cent increments rather than 50 cent increments.

We had another chance at $4.25 new crop corn today before fading lower to the finish. This is a price target we set a few weeks back after taking into consideration our October downtrend and 100-day moving average. Those could be some very stiff areas of resistance. Still recommend a sale at $4.25 and if the market can push through our nearest resistance areas, another target just under the gap on the chart at 503’0 for another round of new crop pricing. 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.