4/26/2024

Apr 26, 2024


Wheat added to its recent rally while corn and soybeans were slightly pressured. A large precipitation system that’s expected to bring rainfall to about 75% of the corn and soybean growing areas materialized earlier today and rain is forecasted to continue off and on through Monday. On the opposite side of the coin, this same system is expected to miss about 50% of the wheat growing area. Corn stayed within a 4-cent range today while soybeans traded a relatively tight 8-11 cents. This week’s rally has been well-received by everyone and there’s been a fair amount of old and new crop pricing done this week but volatility has decreased from what we've become accustomed to over the past few years. Look to use corn sell orders spaced out in 12-15 cent ranges compared to the 25 cent ranges we've been using.  But for now, we will use 25 cent increments until this rally gives us a negative signal.  Also, soybeans sell orders may be better utilized in 25-30 cent increments rather than 50 cent increments.

We had another chance at $4.25 new crop corn today before fading lower to the finish. This is a price target we set a few weeks back after taking into consideration our October downtrend and 100-day moving average. Those could be some very stiff areas of resistance. Still recommend a sale at $4.25 and if the market can push through our nearest resistance areas, another target just under the gap on the chart at 503’0 for another round of new crop pricing. 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.