4/26/2022

Apr 26, 2022


4/26/2022
Soybeans and soy oil rebounded early, following crude oil's bounce back.  After trading 17-21 higher, strength faded throughout the session and the July and August 2022 flipped lower.  New crop beans regained the 1500'0 futures level and closed a couple cents above that mark.   Corn traded 7-12 higher and was able to hold a good portion of those gains in the deferred months.  The USDA made two sale announcements at 8 a.m. this morning that included 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year and 133,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown split roughly 60/40 between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.  The weekly crop progress report is what provided the strength we saw in corn today.  Corn planting was seen at 7% complete versus a 15% average.  Trade is putting a premium on the market assuming maximum yield potential is lost.  We are finally seeing some more seasonally appropriate temperatures creeping their way into extended forecasts but most are 8-10 days out, yet.  Reports indicate Ukraine is continuing to plod along in their planting season with progress at a steady pace with 21% of the crop planted.  Their total crop estimates continue to increase with a 70-80% planted figure now in the cards but the question that remains is how will they get it shipped.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.