4/26/2022

Apr 26, 2022


4/26/2022
Soybeans and soy oil rebounded early, following crude oil's bounce back.  After trading 17-21 higher, strength faded throughout the session and the July and August 2022 flipped lower.  New crop beans regained the 1500'0 futures level and closed a couple cents above that mark.   Corn traded 7-12 higher and was able to hold a good portion of those gains in the deferred months.  The USDA made two sale announcements at 8 a.m. this morning that included 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/23 marketing year and 133,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown split roughly 60/40 between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.  The weekly crop progress report is what provided the strength we saw in corn today.  Corn planting was seen at 7% complete versus a 15% average.  Trade is putting a premium on the market assuming maximum yield potential is lost.  We are finally seeing some more seasonally appropriate temperatures creeping their way into extended forecasts but most are 8-10 days out, yet.  Reports indicate Ukraine is continuing to plod along in their planting season with progress at a steady pace with 21% of the crop planted.  Their total crop estimates continue to increase with a 70-80% planted figure now in the cards but the question that remains is how will they get it shipped.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.