4/26/2021

Apr 26, 2021


4/26/2021
Trade was strongly higher from the start Sunday night, with May, July, and December corn contracts gapping higher on the open.  November beans also gapped higher to open last night's session.  The front months for corn traded limit-up almost immediately after the 8:30 open this morning, then eased off only to be locked limit again later in the session.  Fundamentals remain mostly unchanged with the big driver behind today's huge market moves being mostly fund and spec money buying in huge.  The weekly export inspections added some fuel to the fire with corn inspections coming in at 1.951 mln tonnes, 250k tonnes above the top estimate.  Soybean inspections were reported at 234k tonnes and wheat inspections were 564k tonnes, both at the high end of expectations.  There was also a USDA flash sale this morning of 120k tonnes (4.4 mln bu.) of new crop soybeans to unknown.  This week's USDA crop progress report is expected show sizable increases in corn and bean plantings after improvement in weather.  7-Day weather outlook looks favorable for field work and planting pace is sure to pick up and put us ahead of average a week from now. 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.