4/25/2024

Apr 25, 2024


Overnight trade showed signs of weakness for corn and soybeans but they fought back throughout the day.  Corn was 1-2 cents lower until the mid-day point when the tide turned and corn was able to put together a nice finish of 3-5 cents higher.  Soybeans finished lower on the front 3 months and higher from Sept 24 and out, putting together a really good recovery after May beans traded 16 cents lower.  The May contract even saw some fractionally higher trade late in the session before closing down 3 cents.  While the recovery we saw in corn and soybeans throughout the day partially supported by a continued wheat rally, the weekly net export sales report certainly did not hurt on the corn side.  Soybean sales were a little weak and missed low with 211k tonnes sold.  Corn sales were well above the top of trade expectations at 1.3 mln tonnes sold.  Mexico continues to pile on U.S. corn purchases.  I'm still in the camp that between ethanol's current corn use pace and the export shipment/sales paces, the USDA needs to sharpen their pencil and make some adjustments to these lines on the corn balance sheet.  The current forecasted corn ending stocks of 2.122 is likely too large.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.