4/25/2024

Apr 25, 2024


Overnight trade showed signs of weakness for corn and soybeans but they fought back throughout the day.  Corn was 1-2 cents lower until the mid-day point when the tide turned and corn was able to put together a nice finish of 3-5 cents higher.  Soybeans finished lower on the front 3 months and higher from Sept 24 and out, putting together a really good recovery after May beans traded 16 cents lower.  The May contract even saw some fractionally higher trade late in the session before closing down 3 cents.  While the recovery we saw in corn and soybeans throughout the day partially supported by a continued wheat rally, the weekly net export sales report certainly did not hurt on the corn side.  Soybean sales were a little weak and missed low with 211k tonnes sold.  Corn sales were well above the top of trade expectations at 1.3 mln tonnes sold.  Mexico continues to pile on U.S. corn purchases.  I'm still in the camp that between ethanol's current corn use pace and the export shipment/sales paces, the USDA needs to sharpen their pencil and make some adjustments to these lines on the corn balance sheet.  The current forecasted corn ending stocks of 2.122 is likely too large.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.