4/25/2023

Good increases in planting progress held corn in check and kept the soybean trade underwater on Tuesday. Trade was spot on with their 14% completion in U.S. corn plantings (8% last week, 7% year ago, 11% avg). The USDA was slightly ahead of the trade on soybean plantings at an estimated 9% complete (8% trade, 4% week ago, 3% year ago, 4% average). There's suddenly a lot of negativities surrounding U.S. corn exports after yesterday's corn cancellation to China and we have quickly retreated to some key support areas on old crop. Right now, it's going to be a struggle for anyone bullish corn when you have a combination of good planting pace and slow export demand. The soybean export program is done until new crop and the only bid during this time period will be from the crusher. We do have a tight soybean inventory but the Brazil supply is plentiful and it should be no surprise that boats will be heading north to U.S. ports. While we do feel the market sentiment is overly-bearish right now, the bull is left sitting on the sideline until something fresh comes up to gain control of the market.

A really nice recovery in July corn today. After setting a fresh low for the move, trade put together enough buying to edge us into a fractionally higher finish on the day. If this momentum can follow through into Wednesday, a short rally into the 625 area should be relatively easy.