4/23/2024

Apr 23, 2024


After struggling a bit on the tail end of overnight trade, corn and soybeans traded steady higher and looked their most firm heading into today’s close. After chugging higher for a third consecutive day, we viewed some more technical signals on our front month contracts that indicate potential for a further rally exists. May corn traded a high for the month of April at 443'6, eclipsing our old high of 442'0 which traded on the first day of the month. May soybeans pushed above the March downtrend line and still have a little room overhead before meeting their 20-day moving average. Weekly crop progress estimated corn plantings at 12% complete which matched the trade average guess and last year's progress on this week. 12% could be considered largely average at this point of the season. Soybean plantings were estimated at 8% complete, which also matched this same week last year but was slightly above the trade guess of 7%.

Wheat has been the price leader and been a big factor in the bullish price action of corn and soybeans. As of today, Chicago wheat has rallied over 50 cents off of last Thursday’s low.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.