4/23/2024

Apr 23, 2024


After struggling a bit on the tail end of overnight trade, corn and soybeans traded steady higher and looked their most firm heading into today’s close. After chugging higher for a third consecutive day, we viewed some more technical signals on our front month contracts that indicate potential for a further rally exists. May corn traded a high for the month of April at 443'6, eclipsing our old high of 442'0 which traded on the first day of the month. May soybeans pushed above the March downtrend line and still have a little room overhead before meeting their 20-day moving average. Weekly crop progress estimated corn plantings at 12% complete which matched the trade average guess and last year's progress on this week. 12% could be considered largely average at this point of the season. Soybean plantings were estimated at 8% complete, which also matched this same week last year but was slightly above the trade guess of 7%.

Wheat has been the price leader and been a big factor in the bullish price action of corn and soybeans. As of today, Chicago wheat has rallied over 50 cents off of last Thursday’s low.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.