Grain > Commentary > 4-23-2021

4/23/2021

Apr 23, 2021

4/23/2021
Beans higher and corn mixed after both spent the majority of today's sessions trading around a nickel lower following Thursday's big gains.  Buyers resurfaced in the last 20 minutes of trade to push old crop corn and the bean sector into the green to finish the week.  The weekly close on the July corn contract is 61'2 higher and July beans are 95'0 higher.  At midday today, funds were estimated to be long 560,000 contracts of corn and 219,000 contracts of soybeans.  Along with fund money buying, ethanol and soybean crush margins are well into the black, which should see continuing improvement in basis.  Trade is bulled up, expecting to see an increase in soybean crush and corn processing, which would result in another round of cuts to USDA carry-outs in corn and soybeans.  Sunday night will be the first session with new daily price limits with corn at 40 cents, soybeans at $1.00, and wheat at 45 cents.  With markets surging like they did this week, I wanted to take a look back at our local cash corn price from today's date back through 2016.  We finished today at $6.34 for corn in Murdock, up substantially from this same date one year ago at $2.69.  The April 23 average from 2016-2020 was $3.08.  Don't let the fear of missing out outweigh good business decisions.  Looks like Spring is FINALLY here next week, have a great weekend!
 

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1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.