4/22/2022

Apr 22, 2022


4/22/2022
It appeared that we would finish our week on a strong tone with corn trading 9 higher and soybeans 15 higher towards the end of the overnight session.  During the morning break, we received news that Indonesia would halt all palm oil exports which sent soy oil to trade new all-time highs.  The USDA also made some sale announcements this morning: 1,347,000 tonnes of corn to China (735k mt in 2021/22, 612k mt in 2022/23), 281,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico (90.2k mt in 2021/22, 190.8k mt in 2022/23) and 144,000 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico (48k mt in 2021/22, 96k mt in 2022/23).  That’s roughly 64 million total bushels of corn and 5.3 million bushels of soybeans.  Trade had a different idea on what looked to be a well-supported day and immediately sold off on the 8:30am open, citing a window of weather next week that would encourage field work across a wide area of the U.S. and big precipitation possible in the Brazil forecast.  Along with being well overdue for a correction, options for May contracts expired today which likely helped influence today's move.  We are still well above major price support levels so if trade continues to ease back next week, it does not necessarily mean a change in trend.  July corn trading down to the 740-750 range would be healthy.  Soybeans looked poised to challenge current contract highs but have shied away quickly.

A large reversal in soybeans to end our week.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.