4/22/2022

Apr 22, 2022


4/22/2022
It appeared that we would finish our week on a strong tone with corn trading 9 higher and soybeans 15 higher towards the end of the overnight session.  During the morning break, we received news that Indonesia would halt all palm oil exports which sent soy oil to trade new all-time highs.  The USDA also made some sale announcements this morning: 1,347,000 tonnes of corn to China (735k mt in 2021/22, 612k mt in 2022/23), 281,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico (90.2k mt in 2021/22, 190.8k mt in 2022/23) and 144,000 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico (48k mt in 2021/22, 96k mt in 2022/23).  That’s roughly 64 million total bushels of corn and 5.3 million bushels of soybeans.  Trade had a different idea on what looked to be a well-supported day and immediately sold off on the 8:30am open, citing a window of weather next week that would encourage field work across a wide area of the U.S. and big precipitation possible in the Brazil forecast.  Along with being well overdue for a correction, options for May contracts expired today which likely helped influence today's move.  We are still well above major price support levels so if trade continues to ease back next week, it does not necessarily mean a change in trend.  July corn trading down to the 740-750 range would be healthy.  Soybeans looked poised to challenge current contract highs but have shied away quickly.

A large reversal in soybeans to end our week.
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.