4/22/2022

Apr 22, 2022


4/22/2022
It appeared that we would finish our week on a strong tone with corn trading 9 higher and soybeans 15 higher towards the end of the overnight session.  During the morning break, we received news that Indonesia would halt all palm oil exports which sent soy oil to trade new all-time highs.  The USDA also made some sale announcements this morning: 1,347,000 tonnes of corn to China (735k mt in 2021/22, 612k mt in 2022/23), 281,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico (90.2k mt in 2021/22, 190.8k mt in 2022/23) and 144,000 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico (48k mt in 2021/22, 96k mt in 2022/23).  That’s roughly 64 million total bushels of corn and 5.3 million bushels of soybeans.  Trade had a different idea on what looked to be a well-supported day and immediately sold off on the 8:30am open, citing a window of weather next week that would encourage field work across a wide area of the U.S. and big precipitation possible in the Brazil forecast.  Along with being well overdue for a correction, options for May contracts expired today which likely helped influence today's move.  We are still well above major price support levels so if trade continues to ease back next week, it does not necessarily mean a change in trend.  July corn trading down to the 740-750 range would be healthy.  Soybeans looked poised to challenge current contract highs but have shied away quickly.

A large reversal in soybeans to end our week.
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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.