4/22/2022

Apr 22, 2022


4/22/2022
It appeared that we would finish our week on a strong tone with corn trading 9 higher and soybeans 15 higher towards the end of the overnight session.  During the morning break, we received news that Indonesia would halt all palm oil exports which sent soy oil to trade new all-time highs.  The USDA also made some sale announcements this morning: 1,347,000 tonnes of corn to China (735k mt in 2021/22, 612k mt in 2022/23), 281,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico (90.2k mt in 2021/22, 190.8k mt in 2022/23) and 144,000 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico (48k mt in 2021/22, 96k mt in 2022/23).  That’s roughly 64 million total bushels of corn and 5.3 million bushels of soybeans.  Trade had a different idea on what looked to be a well-supported day and immediately sold off on the 8:30am open, citing a window of weather next week that would encourage field work across a wide area of the U.S. and big precipitation possible in the Brazil forecast.  Along with being well overdue for a correction, options for May contracts expired today which likely helped influence today's move.  We are still well above major price support levels so if trade continues to ease back next week, it does not necessarily mean a change in trend.  July corn trading down to the 740-750 range would be healthy.  Soybeans looked poised to challenge current contract highs but have shied away quickly.

A large reversal in soybeans to end our week.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.