4/22/2021

Apr 22, 2021


4/22/2021
The bulls flexed their muscles in a big way today with the May and July corn contracts finishing the day limit higher and cash beans 34 higher.  We commented earlier this spring that the combination of the tight balance sheets in corn and beans and weather could make for some huge market moves in either direction. The lingering cold looks to be on its way out of the US growing regions, which will see US corn planting pace increase accordingly, but with Brazil forecasted to be dry for the next 10 days and signs of drought stress already visible, grains had the only reason they needed to make a huge move higher.  How high do we go?  May beans traded 1543'0 today but failed to close above the major resistance level of 1536'6, back on 5/22/14.  A close above this number would have us set our sights on filling a gap to 1580'0 that is still on the chart from July, 2013.  Funds have added to their net longs in a huge way, taking advantage of the revised spec position limits that were set in place beginning of March.  This may create some interesting volatility on the way back down when our supply issues are resolved. The front month for Spring Wheat traded above the 700 level today for the first time since August of 2017.
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.