4/21/2023

Apr 21, 2023


Corn and soybeans completed a reversal lower on the week to abruptly end a four-week rally which saw corn pick up around 50 cents and soybeans near $1.20 at the top of the move.  Given the losses on the board since Wednesday, the charts have become violently oversold very quickly and we should see some recovery next week.  On the fundamental side, we have a good idea of the values that are attractive to U.S. export customers.  We had some consistent sale announcements from the USDA but those suddenly went silent and yesterday's weekly net export sales report was disappointing.  Corn and soybeans both missed low with 312k tonnes of corn and only 100k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  To put this into simple terms, unless a crop or supply problem develops in Brazil or the United States, it feels like trade is defining the top end of our price ranges for old crop corn and beans.  Basis will do the work pulling the crop where it needs to be.  The market moves fast.  If you did not price any cash grain in the area of $6.50 corn or $14.60 soybeans, get orders working!  The market is expecting a large bump in planting progress on Monday's report.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.