Grain > Commentary > 4-21-2022

4/21/2022

Apr 21, 2022

4/21/2022
After trading lower overnight, soybeans recovered to finish 2-7 higher on the day on simple money flow in.  After an extremely bearish acres report last month, soybeans have made a miraculous recovery and are only a couple strong days from surpassing contract highs set on the evening Russia invaded Ukraine.  Corn was lower out of the gate overnight and was not able to trade unchanged anywhere.  After rallying $1.00/bu over the past month with hardly a look backwards, we are well past overdue for a correction and a pull back on the board lining up with planters hitting fields would make sense.  The past two years, Iowa has planted 38-40% of its corn crop the last week of April and with Iowa farmers buying ground for $20-25k/acre, they will plant their corn even if conditions are not perfect.  Long range weather outlooks show above-average temperatures likely for this summer (extra GDUs!).  The weekly export sales report applied to some weight to trade, as well, with old crop corn sales underperforming with 879k tonnes sold and old crop soybean sales on the low end of the trading range at 460k tonnes sold.  New crop sales for corn were on the weak side but new crop soybean sales outperformed the trade estimates.
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.