4/21/2021

Apr 21, 2021


4/21/2021
Another big day on the board with numerous new contract highs.  Overnight was slightly lower but futures rallied quickly after the day session opened, with nearby corn adding 19 cents to close at 625'4.  This brings our 3-day total from trade this week to 36 higher on the May corn contract.  Soybeans closed higher for the seventh consecutive day, tacking on $1.13/bu to the May contract over that same period.  We also had our first test of the 1500 mark on the May soybean futures, trading within 1/4 of cent, at 1499'6.  Chinese officials have made it a point to announce that they will be shifting to feed rations that require less corn but this will increase demand for alternative feed grains and vegetable oils to balance those rations.  China also has a growing ethanol sector that will need corn.  Weather remains a big factor in US corn and soybean prices for both old and new crop.  Brazil's soybean harvest is coming to an end and we are still unsure the actual size of the crop, with estimates still coming in a large 180 mln bu range.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed steady production compared to the week prior, with 6.59 mln barrels produced.  Ethanol stocks were cut 71,000 barrels, creating the 9th consecutive week that inventories were reduced.

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May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.