4/21/2021

Apr 21, 2021


4/21/2021
Another big day on the board with numerous new contract highs.  Overnight was slightly lower but futures rallied quickly after the day session opened, with nearby corn adding 19 cents to close at 625'4.  This brings our 3-day total from trade this week to 36 higher on the May corn contract.  Soybeans closed higher for the seventh consecutive day, tacking on $1.13/bu to the May contract over that same period.  We also had our first test of the 1500 mark on the May soybean futures, trading within 1/4 of cent, at 1499'6.  Chinese officials have made it a point to announce that they will be shifting to feed rations that require less corn but this will increase demand for alternative feed grains and vegetable oils to balance those rations.  China also has a growing ethanol sector that will need corn.  Weather remains a big factor in US corn and soybean prices for both old and new crop.  Brazil's soybean harvest is coming to an end and we are still unsure the actual size of the crop, with estimates still coming in a large 180 mln bu range.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed steady production compared to the week prior, with 6.59 mln barrels produced.  Ethanol stocks were cut 71,000 barrels, creating the 9th consecutive week that inventories were reduced.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.