4/21/2021

Apr 21, 2021


4/21/2021
Another big day on the board with numerous new contract highs.  Overnight was slightly lower but futures rallied quickly after the day session opened, with nearby corn adding 19 cents to close at 625'4.  This brings our 3-day total from trade this week to 36 higher on the May corn contract.  Soybeans closed higher for the seventh consecutive day, tacking on $1.13/bu to the May contract over that same period.  We also had our first test of the 1500 mark on the May soybean futures, trading within 1/4 of cent, at 1499'6.  Chinese officials have made it a point to announce that they will be shifting to feed rations that require less corn but this will increase demand for alternative feed grains and vegetable oils to balance those rations.  China also has a growing ethanol sector that will need corn.  Weather remains a big factor in US corn and soybean prices for both old and new crop.  Brazil's soybean harvest is coming to an end and we are still unsure the actual size of the crop, with estimates still coming in a large 180 mln bu range.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed steady production compared to the week prior, with 6.59 mln barrels produced.  Ethanol stocks were cut 71,000 barrels, creating the 9th consecutive week that inventories were reduced.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.