4/20/2023

Apr 20, 2023


Today was another very quiet day in the grain markets as basically the entire screen was red.  Export sales this morning was very poor.  New crop corn was the only exception. The renewed shipping of grain out of Ukraine continues to pull wheat markets lower and corn is the follower.  Beans are lower on more weakness to the Brazil premiums as their crop seems to keep getting bigger by the day.  As the markets broke lower the last couple days, farmer engagement has shut off completely and the focus now turns to the planting season ahead.  Hopefully the weather warms up next and allows some progress.  For those of you with May basis contracts, we have until the 27th of May to clean them up.  High volatility will continue in the May futures, so be careful and pay close attention.  We are playing with a double-edged sword at this point with spreads.  

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.