Grain > Commentary > 4-20-2023

4/20/2023

Apr 20, 2023

Today was another very quiet day in the grain markets as basically the entire screen was red.  Export sales this morning was very poor.  New crop corn was the only exception. The renewed shipping of grain out of Ukraine continues to pull wheat markets lower and corn is the follower.  Beans are lower on more weakness to the Brazil premiums as their crop seems to keep getting bigger by the day.  As the markets broke lower the last couple days, farmer engagement has shut off completely and the focus now turns to the planting season ahead.  Hopefully the weather warms up next and allows some progress.  For those of you with May basis contracts, we have until the 27th of May to clean them up.  High volatility will continue in the May futures, so be careful and pay close attention.  We are playing with a double-edged sword at this point with spreads.  

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.