Grain > Commentary > 4-20-2023

4/20/2023

Apr 20, 2023

Today was another very quiet day in the grain markets as basically the entire screen was red.  Export sales this morning was very poor.  New crop corn was the only exception. The renewed shipping of grain out of Ukraine continues to pull wheat markets lower and corn is the follower.  Beans are lower on more weakness to the Brazil premiums as their crop seems to keep getting bigger by the day.  As the markets broke lower the last couple days, farmer engagement has shut off completely and the focus now turns to the planting season ahead.  Hopefully the weather warms up next and allows some progress.  For those of you with May basis contracts, we have until the 27th of May to clean them up.  High volatility will continue in the May futures, so be careful and pay close attention.  We are playing with a double-edged sword at this point with spreads.  

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.