4/20/2022

Apr 20, 2022


4/20/2022
Strong money flow in on the front months for corn and soybeans. Big gains on the front end trickled down to the deferred months. After shrugging off some early morning weakness, May and July corn finished 10-11 higher on the day with modest gains on September 2022 and further out. Soybeans saw some large double-digit gains in the 12-30 cent range on the old crop months and 7-9 cent gains for the new crop window and further out. Any new information is pretty limited right now which makes today's odd price action even more peculiar. The bull needs to be fed every day and now trade wants to talk about possible Brazil dryness (again) through May and June but that's traditionally a dry period down there. The lack of discussion about their safrinha corn crop should be paid attention to, usually means there are no issues. Weekly ethanol numbers showed production down 48,000 barrels/day to 947,000 bpd, stocks were also down by 461,000 barrels to 24.34 mln bbls. After yesterday's small sale announcement, the USDA wire was quiet at 8:00 a.m. this morning. Weather forecasts continue to improve and I wouldn't be surprised to see planters rolling in the southern reaches of the state and some pressure put on corn beginning of next week.

December 2023 corn finished the day unchanged after 21 consecutive higher closes, rallying around $1.00/bu over the past month.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.