4/20/2022

Apr 20, 2022


4/20/2022
Strong money flow in on the front months for corn and soybeans. Big gains on the front end trickled down to the deferred months. After shrugging off some early morning weakness, May and July corn finished 10-11 higher on the day with modest gains on September 2022 and further out. Soybeans saw some large double-digit gains in the 12-30 cent range on the old crop months and 7-9 cent gains for the new crop window and further out. Any new information is pretty limited right now which makes today's odd price action even more peculiar. The bull needs to be fed every day and now trade wants to talk about possible Brazil dryness (again) through May and June but that's traditionally a dry period down there. The lack of discussion about their safrinha corn crop should be paid attention to, usually means there are no issues. Weekly ethanol numbers showed production down 48,000 barrels/day to 947,000 bpd, stocks were also down by 461,000 barrels to 24.34 mln bbls. After yesterday's small sale announcement, the USDA wire was quiet at 8:00 a.m. this morning. Weather forecasts continue to improve and I wouldn't be surprised to see planters rolling in the southern reaches of the state and some pressure put on corn beginning of next week.

December 2023 corn finished the day unchanged after 21 consecutive higher closes, rallying around $1.00/bu over the past month.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.