4/20/2021

Apr 20, 2021


4/20/2021
Corn and beans are now off the July futures.  Those of you with basis contracts left in the May need to be priced or rolled by mid next week.  Corn and beans rolled to new highs again today as both corn and beans remain well supported.  Farmer movement remains slow for now as we approach $6 cash corn and $14.50 cash beans.  Make sure you are taking advantage of these prices.  Can we go higher?  I think we can, but I would continue to scale up slowly on what you have left to price for old crop.  These are prices we don't want to miss out on.  Basis has improved drastically as movement is slow and the farmer hits the field, so that creates more opportunity.  It does not feel like we are stopping demand and slowing uses at these levels, so we continue to search for a price level that will.  Buckle in for a wild summer.  New crop movement has picked up some as we think about planting and see $4.80 cash corn and 12.35 cash beans for new crop bids.  It is a big discount to old crop, but is worth a look to lock in some margins.  Continue to scale up on sales and your average price should look good when this all shakes out.  
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.