4/20/2021

Apr 20, 2021


4/20/2021
Corn and beans are now off the July futures.  Those of you with basis contracts left in the May need to be priced or rolled by mid next week.  Corn and beans rolled to new highs again today as both corn and beans remain well supported.  Farmer movement remains slow for now as we approach $6 cash corn and $14.50 cash beans.  Make sure you are taking advantage of these prices.  Can we go higher?  I think we can, but I would continue to scale up slowly on what you have left to price for old crop.  These are prices we don't want to miss out on.  Basis has improved drastically as movement is slow and the farmer hits the field, so that creates more opportunity.  It does not feel like we are stopping demand and slowing uses at these levels, so we continue to search for a price level that will.  Buckle in for a wild summer.  New crop movement has picked up some as we think about planting and see $4.80 cash corn and 12.35 cash beans for new crop bids.  It is a big discount to old crop, but is worth a look to lock in some margins.  Continue to scale up on sales and your average price should look good when this all shakes out.  
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.