4/19/2024

Apr 19, 2024


A nice pop in the markets to end the week after a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions. Retaliatory strikes between Iran and Israel took place overnight and, unfortunately, corn and soybeans need something like this to fuel a price rally. We ended Friday with the prior session’s losses erased and then some. Corn picked up 6 cents and soybeans gain 11-16 cents out to their July 25 contracts. Spreads have firmed this week as well. The USDA confirmed two export sales this morning which included: 216,500 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years and 121,500 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown also split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years. The was no shortage of volatility today. Crude oil ranged from 80 cents lower to nearly $5 higher. The DOW was down 500 points overnight but traded 250 points higher during the day session. Wheat ranged the 12-22 cents higher across the different classifications.

May corn futures found a very interesting spot to finish the week. Solidly above the 10-day moving average but only fractionally above the 20- and 50-day moving averages and our October trendline. If trade wants to follow through on today’s action we can see a nice round of technical buying come into the play and maybe give us a chance at challenging the current 100-day moving average. Yesterday was a gut check day for anyone bullish but today’s recovery has corn only -1 cent on the week.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.