4/19/2024

Apr 19, 2024


A nice pop in the markets to end the week after a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions. Retaliatory strikes between Iran and Israel took place overnight and, unfortunately, corn and soybeans need something like this to fuel a price rally. We ended Friday with the prior session’s losses erased and then some. Corn picked up 6 cents and soybeans gain 11-16 cents out to their July 25 contracts. Spreads have firmed this week as well. The USDA confirmed two export sales this morning which included: 216,500 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years and 121,500 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown also split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years. The was no shortage of volatility today. Crude oil ranged from 80 cents lower to nearly $5 higher. The DOW was down 500 points overnight but traded 250 points higher during the day session. Wheat ranged the 12-22 cents higher across the different classifications.

May corn futures found a very interesting spot to finish the week. Solidly above the 10-day moving average but only fractionally above the 20- and 50-day moving averages and our October trendline. If trade wants to follow through on today’s action we can see a nice round of technical buying come into the play and maybe give us a chance at challenging the current 100-day moving average. Yesterday was a gut check day for anyone bullish but today’s recovery has corn only -1 cent on the week.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.