4/19/2024

Apr 19, 2024


A nice pop in the markets to end the week after a sharp rise in geopolitical tensions. Retaliatory strikes between Iran and Israel took place overnight and, unfortunately, corn and soybeans need something like this to fuel a price rally. We ended Friday with the prior session’s losses erased and then some. Corn picked up 6 cents and soybeans gain 11-16 cents out to their July 25 contracts. Spreads have firmed this week as well. The USDA confirmed two export sales this morning which included: 216,500 tonnes of corn to Mexico split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years and 121,500 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown also split between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 marketing years. The was no shortage of volatility today. Crude oil ranged from 80 cents lower to nearly $5 higher. The DOW was down 500 points overnight but traded 250 points higher during the day session. Wheat ranged the 12-22 cents higher across the different classifications.

May corn futures found a very interesting spot to finish the week. Solidly above the 10-day moving average but only fractionally above the 20- and 50-day moving averages and our October trendline. If trade wants to follow through on today’s action we can see a nice round of technical buying come into the play and maybe give us a chance at challenging the current 100-day moving average. Yesterday was a gut check day for anyone bullish but today’s recovery has corn only -1 cent on the week.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.