4/18/2023

Apr 18, 2023


Corn had another strong day as July was higher for the third day in a row. It traded above the 100 day moving average, but failed to hold that 6.45 1/2 level.  If we can close above that level it opens the door to 6.70 July futures.  Today is the highest close since late February.  If you still have old crop corn left at home this is a good time, make another sale.  Then if we happen to trade 6.70 at any point, I would sell the rest.  There is no reason to hold corn into this inverse if we trade that kind of level.  New crop corn worked back over 5.70 futures today.  The 100 day is sitting above at 5.85 futures, which is my target for now. Beans also had a strong day as July traded 15.01 futures on the overnight.  We did close over the 100 day moving average on July beans today, so that opens the door to some higher levels.  15.25 and 15.41 are the next target on the July futures.  I don't think there are many beans left in the country, but if you are the rare few it might not hurt to put some orders in at $15.00 cash.  New crop bean futures traded 13.25 this morning.  The 100 day moving is sitting up around 13.60.  I would be working some $13 cash new crop orders.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.