4/18/2023

Apr 18, 2023


Corn had another strong day as July was higher for the third day in a row. It traded above the 100 day moving average, but failed to hold that 6.45 1/2 level.  If we can close above that level it opens the door to 6.70 July futures.  Today is the highest close since late February.  If you still have old crop corn left at home this is a good time, make another sale.  Then if we happen to trade 6.70 at any point, I would sell the rest.  There is no reason to hold corn into this inverse if we trade that kind of level.  New crop corn worked back over 5.70 futures today.  The 100 day is sitting above at 5.85 futures, which is my target for now. Beans also had a strong day as July traded 15.01 futures on the overnight.  We did close over the 100 day moving average on July beans today, so that opens the door to some higher levels.  15.25 and 15.41 are the next target on the July futures.  I don't think there are many beans left in the country, but if you are the rare few it might not hurt to put some orders in at $15.00 cash.  New crop bean futures traded 13.25 this morning.  The 100 day moving is sitting up around 13.60.  I would be working some $13 cash new crop orders.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.