4/18/2022

Apr 18, 2022


4/18/2022
Most commodities were strongly higher to begin a new week following a 3-day break from the market.  Money had new energy today with cold temps and winter like weather persisting across the grain belt, keeping planters parked.  Also adding fuel to the fire was a fresh Russian offensive in Ukraine where it is now expected that 40% of the wheat will not be harvested and an estimated 36% of total corn production area is considered to be inside "dangerous" regions.  Weekly export inspections were within their estimated ranges last week with 1.139 mln tonnes of corn, 973k tonnes of soybeans, and 432k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment last week.  Corn shipments are 12 million bushels behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target versus 9 million bushels short last week.  Soybean shipments are 44 million bushels behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target versus 68 million bushels the previous week.  Traders will look to see if corn planting advanced in this afternoon's progress report.  More seasonal weather looks to finally make an appearance for many areas during the back half of this week but it also looks like the warmer temps will spark some consistent rain fall at the same time.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.