4/18/2022

Apr 18, 2022


4/18/2022
Most commodities were strongly higher to begin a new week following a 3-day break from the market.  Money had new energy today with cold temps and winter like weather persisting across the grain belt, keeping planters parked.  Also adding fuel to the fire was a fresh Russian offensive in Ukraine where it is now expected that 40% of the wheat will not be harvested and an estimated 36% of total corn production area is considered to be inside "dangerous" regions.  Weekly export inspections were within their estimated ranges last week with 1.139 mln tonnes of corn, 973k tonnes of soybeans, and 432k tonnes of wheat inspected for shipment last week.  Corn shipments are 12 million bushels behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target versus 9 million bushels short last week.  Soybean shipments are 44 million bushels behind the pace needed to reach the USDA target versus 68 million bushels the previous week.  Traders will look to see if corn planting advanced in this afternoon's progress report.  More seasonal weather looks to finally make an appearance for many areas during the back half of this week but it also looks like the warmer temps will spark some consistent rain fall at the same time.

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.