4/16/2021

Today was rather quiet in the markets.  Beans led the way higher on some Argentina strike chatter and also chatter of some extremely large basis pushes in parts of the grain belt.  It is rather impressive to see basis pushes to this extent on April 16th.  What is this telling us to expect for the summer?  Can we find enough beans to continue to crush or are certain areas going to run out?  My guess is some areas will run out.  Bean oil continues to climb to help offset the cost the processors are having to pay.  Corn was really quiet today trading about a nickel on both sides of unchanged.  Basis at the ethanol plants continues to improve and movement remains slow.  The farmer is unwilling to sell much as the market feels bullish and the 2021 crop is yet to be in the ground.  Corn will be hard to buy unless we see the magical number of $6.00 cash.  Can it happen?  I think there is a legitimate shot, but it likely needs to happen before June or we are going to run out of time facing the inverse.  This is going to be a wild year with some crazy basis plays in both corn and beans, so anything can happen depending on what area you’re in and the need for grain.  Be careful, the inverse is going to bite someone, it always does.  Don't run out of time.