4/15/2024

There was an increase in global tension over the weekend that had several people wondering what the market reaction would be but by the time we opened the overnight trade it did not matter. Soybeans briefly traded 2 cents higher and corn never saw any type of trade on the green side of unchanged and we ended Monday giving back virtually of Friday's nice gains. Weekly export inspections were mid-range for corn and soybeans with 1.332 mln tonnes of corn and 433k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. With the overall increase in shipment pace, corn and soybeans have also built up some small surpluses with corn exceeding its target pace by 53 million bushels and soybeans 32 million bushels ahead of their pace needed to the USDA export target. NOPA crush was huge for March, setting a new all-time record in bushels crushed at 196.406 million. This was also a 5.7% increase from March 2023.

Corn will need to make a decision in the near future. Personally, I am cautiously bullish. The USDA is dragging its feet to lower Brazil production and increase U.S. corn exports to the balance sheets. The funds still hold a very large net-short position and we have full planting and growing season in front of us.