4/14/2023

Apr 14, 2023


Corn and wheat higher in strong fashion and soybeans down 5-13 cents to end the week.  With a lack of any fresh news to trade, managed money and speculator action was the name of the game on Friday.  The USDA gave us another 8 a.m. export sale announcement this morning and it was another sale to China split between the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years.  246k metric tons of corn for delivery in 2022/23 and 136k metric tons of corn for delivery in the 2023/24 for a total of 382,000 metric tons.  That's a two-day total of approximately 27.9 million bushels.  The charts have a slightly bullish look to them with May corn closing above the major moving averages and soybeans setting up a potential bull flag pattern.  We still want to be careful getting overly bullish on old crop and feel the $6.50 cash corn and $14.50 cash soybeans are important numbers to grab when they're available.  Sell-orders are still important to implement as it is common for these values to be disappear as fast as they arrive.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.