4/14/2022

Apr 14, 2022


4/14/2022
Corn and soybeans both firmed higher overnight into the day session and finished the week mixed.  Near the mid-day point of the session, corn did a round trip from daily highs to daily lows, trading around 8-9 cents each way in the matter of roughly one hour, only to set fresh contract highs again after noon.  The USDA announced the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2021/22 marketing year.  The weekly export sales report showed routine business with 1.333 mln tonnes of corn and 549k tonnes of soybeans sold last week.  Current sales for old crop corn and soybeans well exceed the paces needed to meet the USDA targets but there's no room for logistical errors or delays to get it all shipped.  30"+ of snow in parts of North Dakota and Montana surely won't help railroad performance.  The USDA is already issuing 2022/23 soy crop estimates for Brazil with initial figures set at 139 million tonnes on a 4.5-million-acre expansion.  Not too far off of where the set their initial total production estimate for this year's Brazil crop on much fewer acres.  The biggest headline to end our market week is the largest shipping company in the world, Maersk, has announced it will liquidate its Russian assets and completely leave the country.  Basically, this means there is currently no maritime logistics in Russia.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.