4/14/2021

Apr 14, 2021


4/14/2021
Corn and beans both strongly higher as fresh buying interest surfaces in the corn trade, pulling beans up with it. Old and new crop corn spent most of the day continually setting new contract highs, with the May corn contract trading 2'2 cents away from the magical 600 level. Brazil enters its dry season; trouble may be brewing for the late planted Safrinha corn. A sizable portion of Brazil's second crop corn was planted outside of the ideal timeframe, missing the end of the rainy season which is vital to the crop. Soybean trade is expecting some friendly news in the March NOPA crush report tomorrow with analysts estimating 170.2 million bushels crushed in March. This would be the 6th largest month on record and a large jump up from the February numbers. There was also some chatter in the market today about a possible new crop bean export sale of decent size and we look forward to seeing confirmation on that. Weekly ethanol production was down 34,000 bpd and stocks also dropped 100k barrels to 20.5 million, margins were seen as 2 cents better this week. It is unfortunate that Mother Nature felt the need to remind us who is in charge as this spring had the makings to be one for the record books. The crop always gets planted.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.