4/14/2021

Apr 14, 2021


4/14/2021
Corn and beans both strongly higher as fresh buying interest surfaces in the corn trade, pulling beans up with it. Old and new crop corn spent most of the day continually setting new contract highs, with the May corn contract trading 2'2 cents away from the magical 600 level. Brazil enters its dry season; trouble may be brewing for the late planted Safrinha corn. A sizable portion of Brazil's second crop corn was planted outside of the ideal timeframe, missing the end of the rainy season which is vital to the crop. Soybean trade is expecting some friendly news in the March NOPA crush report tomorrow with analysts estimating 170.2 million bushels crushed in March. This would be the 6th largest month on record and a large jump up from the February numbers. There was also some chatter in the market today about a possible new crop bean export sale of decent size and we look forward to seeing confirmation on that. Weekly ethanol production was down 34,000 bpd and stocks also dropped 100k barrels to 20.5 million, margins were seen as 2 cents better this week. It is unfortunate that Mother Nature felt the need to remind us who is in charge as this spring had the makings to be one for the record books. The crop always gets planted.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.