4/14/2021

Apr 14, 2021


4/14/2021
Corn and beans both strongly higher as fresh buying interest surfaces in the corn trade, pulling beans up with it. Old and new crop corn spent most of the day continually setting new contract highs, with the May corn contract trading 2'2 cents away from the magical 600 level. Brazil enters its dry season; trouble may be brewing for the late planted Safrinha corn. A sizable portion of Brazil's second crop corn was planted outside of the ideal timeframe, missing the end of the rainy season which is vital to the crop. Soybean trade is expecting some friendly news in the March NOPA crush report tomorrow with analysts estimating 170.2 million bushels crushed in March. This would be the 6th largest month on record and a large jump up from the February numbers. There was also some chatter in the market today about a possible new crop bean export sale of decent size and we look forward to seeing confirmation on that. Weekly ethanol production was down 34,000 bpd and stocks also dropped 100k barrels to 20.5 million, margins were seen as 2 cents better this week. It is unfortunate that Mother Nature felt the need to remind us who is in charge as this spring had the makings to be one for the record books. The crop always gets planted.

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May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.