4/13/2023

Apr 13, 2023


Corn and soybeans looked to be putting together a day of stronger trade but end the session with corn down 1-3 cents and soybeans picking up modest gains of 1-5 cents. The weekly export sales report may have taken some of the energy out of trade with figures coming in on the low end of expectations. 528k tonnes of corn and 365k tonnes of soybeans were sold last week. The USDA announced an export sale to China at 8 a.m. this morning. The sale totaled 327,000 tonnes of corn with 191k tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 136k tonnes for delivery in 2023/24. This is the first new crop corn sale to China. The lack of discussion on planting pace in the market tells a lot. Planting season is pretty well a full go anywhere south of I-90 and the extended forecasts look good for fields to become more suitable for work. With drought conditions in the western corn belt mostly sustained throughout winter, ground will likely become fit faster than average and encourage a quick planting pace.

The corn charts are coiling/tightening near the middle of their 2-month ranges, along with moving average convergence, fueling another breakout that is likely to occur before the end of April. Trade seems a little confused on direction right now in contrast to February when a lack of news created dead period of the market with sideways trade.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.