4/13/2023

Apr 13, 2023


Corn and soybeans looked to be putting together a day of stronger trade but end the session with corn down 1-3 cents and soybeans picking up modest gains of 1-5 cents. The weekly export sales report may have taken some of the energy out of trade with figures coming in on the low end of expectations. 528k tonnes of corn and 365k tonnes of soybeans were sold last week. The USDA announced an export sale to China at 8 a.m. this morning. The sale totaled 327,000 tonnes of corn with 191k tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 136k tonnes for delivery in 2023/24. This is the first new crop corn sale to China. The lack of discussion on planting pace in the market tells a lot. Planting season is pretty well a full go anywhere south of I-90 and the extended forecasts look good for fields to become more suitable for work. With drought conditions in the western corn belt mostly sustained throughout winter, ground will likely become fit faster than average and encourage a quick planting pace.

The corn charts are coiling/tightening near the middle of their 2-month ranges, along with moving average convergence, fueling another breakout that is likely to occur before the end of April. Trade seems a little confused on direction right now in contrast to February when a lack of news created dead period of the market with sideways trade.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.