4/13/2023

Apr 13, 2023


Corn and soybeans looked to be putting together a day of stronger trade but end the session with corn down 1-3 cents and soybeans picking up modest gains of 1-5 cents. The weekly export sales report may have taken some of the energy out of trade with figures coming in on the low end of expectations. 528k tonnes of corn and 365k tonnes of soybeans were sold last week. The USDA announced an export sale to China at 8 a.m. this morning. The sale totaled 327,000 tonnes of corn with 191k tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 136k tonnes for delivery in 2023/24. This is the first new crop corn sale to China. The lack of discussion on planting pace in the market tells a lot. Planting season is pretty well a full go anywhere south of I-90 and the extended forecasts look good for fields to become more suitable for work. With drought conditions in the western corn belt mostly sustained throughout winter, ground will likely become fit faster than average and encourage a quick planting pace.

The corn charts are coiling/tightening near the middle of their 2-month ranges, along with moving average convergence, fueling another breakout that is likely to occur before the end of April. Trade seems a little confused on direction right now in contrast to February when a lack of news created dead period of the market with sideways trade.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.