4/13/2023

Apr 13, 2023


Corn and soybeans looked to be putting together a day of stronger trade but end the session with corn down 1-3 cents and soybeans picking up modest gains of 1-5 cents. The weekly export sales report may have taken some of the energy out of trade with figures coming in on the low end of expectations. 528k tonnes of corn and 365k tonnes of soybeans were sold last week. The USDA announced an export sale to China at 8 a.m. this morning. The sale totaled 327,000 tonnes of corn with 191k tonnes for delivery in 2022/23 and 136k tonnes for delivery in 2023/24. This is the first new crop corn sale to China. The lack of discussion on planting pace in the market tells a lot. Planting season is pretty well a full go anywhere south of I-90 and the extended forecasts look good for fields to become more suitable for work. With drought conditions in the western corn belt mostly sustained throughout winter, ground will likely become fit faster than average and encourage a quick planting pace.

The corn charts are coiling/tightening near the middle of their 2-month ranges, along with moving average convergence, fueling another breakout that is likely to occur before the end of April. Trade seems a little confused on direction right now in contrast to February when a lack of news created dead period of the market with sideways trade.
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.