4/13/2022

Apr 13, 2022


4/13/2022
Trade pulled a bit of a head fake overnight and early in the day session with corn down 5-10 and soybeans 15-20 lower, giving the impression that someone was trying to sell this off.  Corn found solid buying interest at that level and was able to pop to new contract highs late in the day.  Soybeans bounced off of their lows, as well, with the July 22 contract finding technical support at the 20-day moving average for the fourth consecutive day.  After announcing a huge corn export sale to China to start our week, there were no 8 a.m. announcements from the USDA yesterday or today.  The weekly ethanol report showed output off 8,000 bpd to 995,000 bpd and stocks off 1.1 million barrels to 24.8 mln bbls.  Brazil export performance for April is easily going to beat market estimates with Brazilian corn, soy, and wheat shipment volumes all well above their expected levels.  Trade is expecting Friday's NOPA crush report to show nearly 182 million bushels crushed in March with estimates ranging from 179.2-186.0 million bushels.  If realized, this would be a March crush record.  One story not getting much attention is the Argentina trucker strike, which seems like it has become annual event not unlike the Super Bowl or World Series.  Truck owners and government officials met today but no resolution was found.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.