4/13/2021

Apr 13, 2021


4/13/2021
Beans rebounded from yesterday's liquidation on the overnight trade and through the day session while corn was strongly higher after some mixed overnight trade.  After a large sell-off like yesterday's, you can expect to see markets bounce back higher the following day (Turnaround Tuesday!).  New crop corn established a new December 21 contract high of 505'6 shortly after the morning open and was able to hold most of its gains through the day.  Our second crop progress report for the season was released late yesterday afternoon with corn planting at 4% (6% trade estimate, 3% yearly average).  Spring wheat planting is seen ahead of average at 11 complete vs a 6% yearly average and is most likely due to dry conditions in large wheat seeding areas.  Winter wheat conditions are currently 53% good/excellent and 5% headed.  Planting soybeans ahead of corn has been a popular activity this year with farmers attempting to take advantage of the market inverse.  Basis has been strengthening daily for both corn and beans as end-users scramble to get coverage on an ever-shrinking supply.  Many are considering taking delivery on futures as a cheaper alternative to the cash market.
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.