4/12/2022

Apr 12, 2022


4/12/2022
It’s that time of year when the market begins paying close attention to U.S. planting progress.  We have very little room for error with this year's crop and the weekly report showed that U.S. corn planting did not advance from the previous week's report.  Corn planting progress in the U.S. remained at 2% complete (4% year ago, 3% avg.)  Spring wheat planting was seen at 6% complete (3% week prior, 10% year ago, 5% avg).  The winter wheat condition was rated at 32% good/excellent, a slight improvement but well behind last year's 53% g/e on the same week.  There are large amounts of precipitation forecasted for the winter wheat areas this week.  The USDA does not report planting progress for soybeans this early.  Weather outlooks for 10-14 days still show below average temperatures but with today's standard equipment including 300+ horsepower tractors taking 60–90-foot planter passes near 10 mph; the crop will get planted fast once it's fit to go.  It's always "buy the rumor, sell the fact."  The U.S. Department of Labor said the Consumer Price Index jumped 8.5% in March from 12 months earlier.  This largest year-over-year increase since 1981.  Inflation also rose 1.2% February to March. 

Highest close on a July corn contract since September of 2012.
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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.