4/12/2022

Apr 12, 2022


4/12/2022
It’s that time of year when the market begins paying close attention to U.S. planting progress.  We have very little room for error with this year's crop and the weekly report showed that U.S. corn planting did not advance from the previous week's report.  Corn planting progress in the U.S. remained at 2% complete (4% year ago, 3% avg.)  Spring wheat planting was seen at 6% complete (3% week prior, 10% year ago, 5% avg).  The winter wheat condition was rated at 32% good/excellent, a slight improvement but well behind last year's 53% g/e on the same week.  There are large amounts of precipitation forecasted for the winter wheat areas this week.  The USDA does not report planting progress for soybeans this early.  Weather outlooks for 10-14 days still show below average temperatures but with today's standard equipment including 300+ horsepower tractors taking 60–90-foot planter passes near 10 mph; the crop will get planted fast once it's fit to go.  It's always "buy the rumor, sell the fact."  The U.S. Department of Labor said the Consumer Price Index jumped 8.5% in March from 12 months earlier.  This largest year-over-year increase since 1981.  Inflation also rose 1.2% February to March. 

Highest close on a July corn contract since September of 2012.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.