4/12/2022

Apr 12, 2022


4/12/2022
It’s that time of year when the market begins paying close attention to U.S. planting progress.  We have very little room for error with this year's crop and the weekly report showed that U.S. corn planting did not advance from the previous week's report.  Corn planting progress in the U.S. remained at 2% complete (4% year ago, 3% avg.)  Spring wheat planting was seen at 6% complete (3% week prior, 10% year ago, 5% avg).  The winter wheat condition was rated at 32% good/excellent, a slight improvement but well behind last year's 53% g/e on the same week.  There are large amounts of precipitation forecasted for the winter wheat areas this week.  The USDA does not report planting progress for soybeans this early.  Weather outlooks for 10-14 days still show below average temperatures but with today's standard equipment including 300+ horsepower tractors taking 60–90-foot planter passes near 10 mph; the crop will get planted fast once it's fit to go.  It's always "buy the rumor, sell the fact."  The U.S. Department of Labor said the Consumer Price Index jumped 8.5% in March from 12 months earlier.  This largest year-over-year increase since 1981.  Inflation also rose 1.2% February to March. 

Highest close on a July corn contract since September of 2012.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.