Grain > Commentary > 4-11-2024

4/11/2024

Apr 11, 2024

The April WASDE report was a certified snoozer and the market deflated quickly after 11:00am. Corn and soybeans had been trading steady around unchanged after Brazil's CONAB update had cut production estimates for Brazil crops. The USDA report simply punted on their South American estimates, leaving everything unchanged with the lone exception being corn production in Argentina reduced by 1 million metric tonne. The USDA increased corn use for feed and ethanol each by 25 million bushels which reduced the 2023/24 ending stocks to 2.122 bln. bu. Soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels. A couple other small changes on the soybean balance sheet saw the 2023/24 ending stocks grow from 315 mln bushels to 340 mln bushels.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.