4/11/2024

Apr 11, 2024


The April WASDE report was a certified snoozer and the market deflated quickly after 11:00am. Corn and soybeans had been trading steady around unchanged after Brazil's CONAB update had cut production estimates for Brazil crops. The USDA report simply punted on their South American estimates, leaving everything unchanged with the lone exception being corn production in Argentina reduced by 1 million metric tonne. The USDA increased corn use for feed and ethanol each by 25 million bushels which reduced the 2023/24 ending stocks to 2.122 bln. bu. Soybean exports were reduced by 20 million bushels. A couple other small changes on the soybean balance sheet saw the 2023/24 ending stocks grow from 315 mln bushels to 340 mln bushels.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.