4/11/2023

Apr 11, 2023


The USDA left the corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged in the April WASDE report.  It was slightly bearish in a sense that trade had been expecting cuts to this year's ending stocks.  Corn was trading unchanged prior to the report and the July contract was down as much as 7 cents as an immediate reaction at 11 a.m.  Soybeans were trading around 10 cents higher before the report, were sold off to trade around 2 cents higher but managed to pick up some momentum late in the session and end the day with 4 to 10 cent gains.  Our market will now be driven by weather and planting progress reports over the next month leading up to the May WASDE report.  We still like the $6.50 cash price level on corn and we are still optimistic about potential $14.75-15.00 soybeans.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.