4/10/2023

Apr 10, 2023


Soybeans trade opposite of the strength in corn and wheat to begin the week. After a slow overnight session that featured mostly lower trade, corn was able to turn positive and print the highs for the day shortly before the close. Soybeans traded steady in the 1-2 cent lower range. Weekly export inspections were within expectations with 805k tonnes of corn and 670k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. For this week of the marketing year, that was a light number for corn and further slows our shipment pace to 181 million bushels under the USDA export target. Soybean shipment pace continues to build a cushion and is now 60 million bushels ahead of the USDA target. Tomorrow at 11 a.m. the USDA will issue its April installment of the monthly WASDE report where it is expected to see small cuts to the corn and soybean ending stocks for the 2022/23 marketing year. Trade is also anticipating slightly lower production numbers out of South America. Given today's price action, I expect this report to be neutral for corn and friendly for soybeans.

The 550’0 area is developing into an important support area on Dec 23 corn futures.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.