4/10/2023

Apr 10, 2023


Soybeans trade opposite of the strength in corn and wheat to begin the week. After a slow overnight session that featured mostly lower trade, corn was able to turn positive and print the highs for the day shortly before the close. Soybeans traded steady in the 1-2 cent lower range. Weekly export inspections were within expectations with 805k tonnes of corn and 670k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. For this week of the marketing year, that was a light number for corn and further slows our shipment pace to 181 million bushels under the USDA export target. Soybean shipment pace continues to build a cushion and is now 60 million bushels ahead of the USDA target. Tomorrow at 11 a.m. the USDA will issue its April installment of the monthly WASDE report where it is expected to see small cuts to the corn and soybean ending stocks for the 2022/23 marketing year. Trade is also anticipating slightly lower production numbers out of South America. Given today's price action, I expect this report to be neutral for corn and friendly for soybeans.

The 550’0 area is developing into an important support area on Dec 23 corn futures.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.