Grain > Commentary > 4-1-2024

4/1/2024

Apr 01, 2024

An unfavorable start to the week for corn after last Thursday's friendly report.  Corn never saw higher trade of any kind throughout the session and ended Monday off 3-6 cents.  Soybeans followed lower in what was a very quiet session for soy.  Weaker spreads held the bigger losses on the front months and new crop corn is still 6 cents within Friday's high.  New crop soybeans are roughly 30 cents off of their recent high but have found some simple technical support with the 20 and 50-day moving averages.  The May corn and soybean contracts have also found some simple moving average support.  Weekly export inspection volume continues on with traditional volume for corn and soybeans.  Corn shipments were reported above trade expectations with 1.432 mln tonnes last week.  Soybean shipments came in low at 414k tonnes.  Wheat had its best week of the marketing year and out-performed trade expectations wiht 499k tonnes shipped.  Soybean shipment pace is slowing and is just 10 million bushels above the USDA export target.  Corn shipments exceed their target pace by 45 million bushels and continue to grow.  A good sign the U.S. corn market is low enough to generate demand.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.