4/1/2021

Apr 01, 2021


4/1/2021
After closing limit higher yesterday, it was hard to imagine we would finish the week with a red leg on the chart for the old crop months.  Last night, May corn gapped higher on the open by 11 cents and May beans put up an 8-cent gap with both wasting little time trading to 20 higher.  It was a downhill slide after that with managed money and algorithm trading constantly repositioning.  Best not to put too much weight into today's trade action as we need the 3-day Easter break from trade to really understand what price levels we should be trading.  We get another big report next Friday, April 9, in the WASDE report.  If the USDA decides to keep carry-outs at the same numbers 3 months in a row, it will be tough to maintain our renewed bullish momentum.  Overshadowed today were the weekly export sales.  Corn, soybeans, and wheat were all within their expected ranges but mostly on the low end.  The biggest highlight was China purchasing one cargo of US soybeans plus one cargo switched from unknown to China.  Reminder, GPC will be closed tomorrow (4/2/21) for Good Friday.  The markets will also be closed but trade will resume Sunday evening at 7 p.m. and we can work a sell-order if you like.  Happy Easter.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.